Elections?? We can't even organize a seminar!

Monday, February 06, 2006

Elections are just around the corner, and people are wondering what the political climate is like. Chò is probably the best answer. It means ‘hot’ in Creole, and is used to describe the rampant insecurity that still plagues several areas in Port-au-Prince. Still, it looks like elections are going to happen, so here are a few observations from the ground.

Elections have been postponed four times already. Are they really going to happen?

I think that elections will at least be attempted on February 7^th. For the first time in this election cycle, candidates are starting to do significant radio and television advertising and have picked up demonstrations in the streets. The candidates think elections will happen, and so do I.

Who is going to win?

As far as I can tell, there is only candidate capable of winning a popular mandate: ex-President Rene Preval. He was president between Aristide’s terms, and has the distinction of being the only Haitian president to serve a full term in office and relinquish power as scheduled. Although he was Aristide’s Prime Minister and hand-picked successor, he is somewhat less connected to the corruption and violence of the Aristide years. Preval is hugely popular amongst Lavalas (Aristide’s party) supporters, but has formed his own party, Lespwa (Hope), for these elections. The only way someone else can become president is if Preval is removed from the equation or through widespread fraud.

Who else is running?

There are 33 official candidates for President (not counting one who died recently). There were many, many more, but they have been weeded out by the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP). Dumarsais Simeus is a prominent example; he is a multi-millionaire businessman who has been living in Texas for 40 years, and decided to return to Haiti this year to run for President. He was one of the top candidates until the CEP remembered that the Constitution bars citizens of foreign countries from running for President.

One of the main challengers is Charles Henri Baker, a prominent businessman who has made a fortune in light manufacturing, who happens to be whiter than I am. It’s bizarre. I’ve been telling people that he’s my cousin, and no one has questioned me yet. He is, after all, a permanent resident of the United States. The other major candidate is Leslie Manigat, a well-known intellectual who was ‘elected’ President in 1988 and then deposed a few months later when he challenged the military that had selected him. After that you have Guy Philippe, who led the 2004 coup that deposed Aristide, Dany Toussaint, widely linked to drug trafficking, and Franck Romain, a close collaborator of both Papa Doc and Baby Doc who helped avert a 1958 coup attempt. The list goes on. Fr. Gerard Jean-Juste, a Catholic priest and proche of Aristide, might very well be a top contender if he hadn’t been put in jail by the provisional government on trumped-up murder charges.

What would Preval’s election mean for the country?

During a recent campaign speech, Preval took a plastic bottle and tried to balance it upside-down on his palm. As it fell over time and again, he said to his supporters: “The State is just like this bottle; it can’t stand on its head!” He is trying to prepare people for the reality that he will not be able to cure all of Haiti’s ills himself. His election could very well mean greater stability in the country, which would make it easier for the various groups trying to work for change in Haiti (like, say, the University of Fondwa) to accomplish their goals.

How do candidates campaign in Haiti?

The number one method seems to be 8 ½ x 11 posters that have been plastered over every square inch of the capital. Another popular tactic is putting huge speakers on the back of a truck and getting supporters to follow it around town singing campaign slogans. Supporters is a bit strong really, because most people involved in the campaigns seem to be drawn by promises of food or money. That’s not to say that Haitian’s don’t embrace democracy—they have proven themselves willing to risk their lives and walk or wait for hours on end just to have the chance to vote. Radio advertising is going up, and some debates have been organized, but they are not widely available to the public.

What are the greatest challenges that remain?

Haiti is not an organized country in a bureaucratic sense. UNIF had a seminar last weekend, and, even though there was plenty of time to plan ahead, we were missing just about everything come Sunday morning. There wasn’t enough food, not everyone received the documents, names were misspelled on certificates, we didn’t even have markers for the presenters to write with.

Now, let’s think about elections. After two years, it finally seems as if most people have their identity cards needed to vote. They had to be produced in Mexico because no firm in Haiti could be found to fill the order. There are 8 million people in this country spread out over vast stretches of mountains and valleys and plains that are at points hardly passable. Assuming that everyone gets to the polls and that violence doesn’t reign, it’s still going to be a technical nightmare to count the votes. And don’t forget, if no one wins 50% of the vote, there will have to be a second round!